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Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries-Safi Bahcall

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* Instant WSJ bestseller * Translated into 18 languages* #1 Most Recommended Book of the year (Bloomberg annual survey of CEOs and entrepreneurs)* An Amazon, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Forbes, Inc., Newsweek, Strategy + Business, Tech Crunch, Washington Post Best Business Book of the year* Recommended by Bill Gates, Daniel Kahneman, Malcolm Gladwell, Dan Pink, Adam Grant, Susan Cain, Sid Mukherjee, Tim FerrissWhy do good teams kill great ideas?Loonshots reveals a surprising new way of thinking about the mysteries of group behavior that challenges everything we thought we knew about nurturing radical breakthroughs.Bahcall, a physicist and entrepreneur, shows why teams, companies, or any group with a mission will suddenly change from embracing new ideas to rejecting them, just as flowing water will suddenly change into brittle ice. Mountains of print have been written about culture. Loonshots identifies the small shifts in structure that control this transition, the same way that temperature controls the change from water to ice.Using examples that range from the spread of fires in forests to the hunt for terrorists online, and stories of thieves and geniuses and kings, Bahcall shows how a new kind of science can help us become the initiators, rather than the victims, of innovative surprise.Over the past decade, researchers have been applying the tools and techniques of this new science—the science of phase transitions—to understand how birds flock, fish swim, brains work, people vote, diseases erupt, and ecosystems collapse. Loonshots is the first to apply this science to the spread of breakthrough ideas. Bahcall distills these insights into practical lessons creatives, entrepreneurs, and visionaries can use to change our world.Along the way, readers will learn how chickens saved millions of lives, what James Bond and Lipitor have in common, what the movie Imitation Game got wrong about WWII, and what really killed Pan Am, Polaroid, and the Qing Dynasty.“If The Da Vinci Code and Freakonomics had a child together, it would be called Loonshots.” —Senator Bob Kerrey

Book Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries Review :



You would imagine that the first time someone presented the idea of using an invisible beam to detect ships and airplanes, or a drug to reduce cholesterol, or to kill tumors by choking their blood supply, there would be wild jubilation welcoming such a world-shaking breakthrough.Aaaand you would be wrong. As a rule, the folks who came up with such painfully obvious innovations as radar, statins and anti-angiogenesis drugs were rejected, and again, and again. For up to 32 years.Loonshots are “widely dismissed ideas whose champions are often written off as crazy.” Through dozens of engaging stories told with insight and wry humor, Bahcall describes how loonshots (such as radar, the internet, and Pixar movies) come about, how to nurture them, how to champion them, and how to keep from inadvertently killing them.A gifted storyteller, Bahcall populates the narrative with characters endlessly fascinating because of their pluck, stubbornness, luck, or sheer genius: Vannevar Bush, the creator of the Office of Science Research and Development which basically won WW2; Akira Endo, the Japanese chemist who screened 6000 fungi to discover statins only to have his work stolen; Judah Folkman, the saintly discoverer of angiogenesis; Juan Terry Trippe, the larger-than-life founder of PanAm; Charles Lindbergh; Edwin Land, the supergenius founder of Polaroid; and Steve Jobs, who continues to get a lot more credit for Apple’s products than he deserved.In each of these instances, Bahcall goes deep, uncovering the complexities that belie simplistic origin stories and hero worship (Jobs and Newton are notably knocked down a few notches). Bahcall has done some serious sleuthing here. He also has a flair for super-clear explanations of complex scientific subjects.One of the book's central theses is that loonshots have their genesis in company *structure* and not culture. He draws a parallel from the science of phase transitions. To generate loonshots, you want fluidity: smaller teams with mostly creative folks (“artists”). To generate franchises, or even just to bring the loonshots to market, you want solidity: bigger teams staffed with “soldiers” with well-defined roles. Leading to the Loonshot Rules:1. Separate the phases: Separate your artists and soldiers.2. Dynamic equilibrium: Love your artists and soldiers equally.3. Critical mass: Have a loonshot group large enough to ignite.In the latter part of the book, Bahcall presents a plausible quantitative model for the various forces that incline team members towards loonshot vs franchise behavior, and how to tweak those variables to get the kind of company you want.I found this book enjoyable and enlightening enough to have read it twice already. If you are an entrepreneur, scientist, artist, drug developer, military officer, or just a rabid fan of ideas with some of your own you’d like to make real, you should find out about P-type (product) loonshots vs S-type (strategy) loonshots; the Bush-Vail rules; systems mindset vs outcome mindset for doing postmortems; and the dreaded Moses trap. Also, why *does* the world speak English and not Chinese, when the Chinese invented printing and gunpowder hundreds of years before the West? With the word “loonshot” likely poised to become part of the vernacular in innovative circles, this is the book that puts you ahead of the curve. Consider it the most fun required reading you’ll ever do.-- Ali Binazir, M.D., M.Phil., host of "The Ideaverse", author of  The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible , the highest-rated dating book on Amazon, and  Should I Go to Medical School?: An Irreverent Guide to the Pros and Cons of a Career in Medicine
Every so often I come across a book that I know as I'm reading it that my perspective is changing and my horizons are broadening. "Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries" is one such book. From the outset, Safi Bahcall grabs the reader's attention and keeps it with examples from history of what he's going to explain, setting it up to be understood thoroughly. He talks about lessons learned in wartime as well as from Polaroid and space exploration, among other periods and events. There's a lot I could say about this book, but to keep it simple I'll anchor my comments to a few of the many key terms the writer discusses.To begin, there's the important distinction to be made between a franchise and what Bahcall refers to as a 'loonshot.'Franchise: The subsequent iterations or updated versions of an original product or service.Examples provided include each new version of the iPhone and the 26th James Bond Movie. I also relate this to a phenomenon I noticed many years ago among fast food restaurants, where new items on the menu are often just reformulations of existing menu items. A prime example is the 'KFC Famous Bowl,' which marketing now refers to as a 'classic.' Ever since first time it went on sale, not long enough ago to count as a 'classic' by any normal measure, I've seen it as the company just phoning it in. Innovation is too risky, and they already have the ingredients, so they just toss it all in a bowl and sell it.Loonshot: A neglected project, widely dismissed, its champion written off as unhinged.A loonshot is risky, because it's based on an idea that established 'experts' generally consider unfeasible and unfundable. Radar is a famous example of a technology that was roundly rejected by military brass and bureaucrats until it was almost too late. Another is statins, the first of which faced a difficult road to success and acceptance.False Fail: When a valid hypothesis yields a negative result in an experiment because of a flaw in the design of the experiment.Sometimes the test is the problem. When Akira Endo was testing a drug to see if it would lower cholesterol, the tests failed. He was testing on rats, which were later discovered to have low levels of LDL (aka 'bad cholesterol'). When he tested on chickens, which have high levels of LDL, the results were spectacular. Eventually, statins resulted, and people were provided a pharmacological solution to high cholesterol. This almost didn't happen, because Endo's research had repeatedly faced setbacks and failures. It was only through luck and his determination to see it through that we now have this option for treatment.Phases of organization: When an organization is considered as a complex system, we can expect that system to exhibit phases and phase transitions — for instance, between a phase that encourages a focus on loonshots and a phase that encourages a focus on careers.This part about organizational phases was an eye-opener for me. I've heard various executives over the years complain about the lack of innovation in major corporations generally, and I've always attributed it to the size of such companies making them slow-moving. While that may still be part of it, I now see how managers at various levels act in the interest of their careers over the chance at a breakthrough success. Loonshots are often ugly babies, easily dismissed and lethal to careers if they face failure. Bahcall tells the reader about his observation that loonshots experience three deaths before possibly reaching success, which translates to three failures. Some take years, even decades to see through all the way, and many don't come back from a single death. With them can go any respect or credibility previously accorded their backer(s), making it better to be the person who poo-poos novel ideas in meetings. In career terms, it's the safer route.To this and more Safi Bahcall offers a handful of solutions and strategies that can foster loonshots, but to get those you'll just have to read the book for yourself.

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